Publications
Publications
- Science
Bringing Probability Judgments into Policy Debates via Forecasting Tournaments
By: Philip E. Tetlock, Barbara A. Mellers and J. Peter Scoblic
Abstract
Political debates often suffer from vague-verbiage predictions that make it difficult to assess accuracy and improve policy. A tournament sponsored by the U.S. intelligence community revealed ways in which forecasters can better use probability estimates to make predictions—even for seemingly “unique” events—and showed that tournaments are a useful tool for generating knowledge. Drawing on the literature about the effects of accountability, the authors suggest that tournaments may hold even greater potential as tools for depolarizing political debates and resolving policy disputes.
Keywords
Tournaments; Politics; Depolarization; Knowledge Creation; Forecasting and Prediction; Government and Politics
Citation
Tetlock, Philip E., Barbara A. Mellers, and J. Peter Scoblic. "Bringing Probability Judgments into Policy Debates via Forecasting Tournaments." Science 355, no. 6324 (February 3, 2017): 481–483.