Publications
Publications
- 2013
Learning from Double-Digit Growth Experiences
By: Eric D. Werker
Abstract
This extended memorandum identifies episodes of sustained double-digit growth in real GDP, defined as a compound annual growth rate of 10 percent or more over a period of 8 years or longer. Using a measure of real GDP reported in the World Development Indicators, we identify 33 country-episodes of double-digit growth since 1960. The narrative of each episode is presented, and key drivers of growth described. The double-digit growth episodes are then compared to episodes of sustained 6-7 percent growth on a number of economic and development indicators. Statistical tests show that differences in average episode values between the two groups are significant for: Amount of FDI received, the share of natural resource rents in GDP, investment, export growth, industrial composition, and public spending on education. Double-digit growth countries also tended to show worse performance on a number of business environment and governance indicators. From this analysis, lessons are drawn for Liberia. We conclude that with a continued inflow of aid, foreign direct investment, and a rapid increase in natural resource production, Liberia has the potential to achieve double-digit growth. However, as experiences of double-digit growth countries show, the challenge will be to convert the surge in unearned income into sustainable growth, sound policy reforms, and effective governance.
Keywords
Citation
Werker, Eric D. "Learning from Double-Digit Growth Experiences." International Growth Centre Working Paper, April 2013.