Working Paper
| HBS Working Paper Series
| 2013
Carry Trade, Reserve Accumulation, and Exchange-Rate Regimes
Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
Carry-trade activity and foreign participation in local-currency-bond markets in emerging countries have increased dramatically over the past decade. In light of these trends, we revisit the question of the optimal exchange-rate regime when developing countries can borrow internationally with local-currency-denominated debt. We find that, as local-currency-bond markets develop, a “pseudo-flexible regime,” whereby a country accumulates reserves in conjunction with debt, to be the best policy alternative under real external shocks for emerging nations.
Keywords: carry trade;
exchange rate;
foreign reserves;
local-currency bonds;