More from these Authors

• Conference Presentation | 1 Mar 2013 - 2 Mar 2013

  The Value of Flexibility in Baseball Roster Construction

  Timothy Chan and Douglas S. Fearing

  Drawing inspiration from the theory of production flexibility in manufacturing networks, we provide the first optimization-based analysis of the value of positional flexibility (the ability of a player to play multiple positions) for a major league baseball team in the presence of injury risk. First, we develop novel statistical models to estimate (1) the likelihood and duration of player injuries during the regular season, and (2) fielding abilities at secondary fielding positions. Next, we develop a robust optimization model to calculate the degradation in team performance due to injuries. Finally, we apply this model to measure the difference in performance between a team with players who have positional flexibility and a team that does not. We find that using 2012 rosters, flexibility was expected to create from 3% (White Sox) to 15% (Cubs) in value for each team, measured in runs above replacement. In analyzing the results, we find that platoon advantages (e.g., having left-handed batters face right-handed pitchers) form an important component of flexibility. As a secondary finding, based on our statistical analysis of injuries, we find that the likelihood of injury increases with age, but the duration of injury does not.

  Citation:

  Chan, Timothy, and Douglas S. Fearing. "The Value of Flexibility in Baseball Roster Construction." Paper presented at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, Boston, MA, March 1–2, 2013.

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• Case | HBS Case Collection | 2013

  Beijing’s Terminal 3: Building a New Gateway to China

  Douglas Fearing, Ananth Raman and G.A. Donovan

  Citation:

  Fearing, Douglas, Ananth Raman, and G.A. Donovan. "Beijing’s Terminal 3: Building a New Gateway to China." Harvard Business School Case 613-051, January 2013.

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• Journal Article | Transportation Science | Forthcoming

  Equitable and Efficient Coordination in Traffic Flow Management

  Cynthia Barnhart, Dimitris Bertsimas, Constantine Caramanis and Douglas S. Fearing

  When air traffic demand is projected to exceed capacity, the FAA implements Traffic Flow Management programs. Independently, these programs maintain a first-scheduled, first-served invariant, which is the accepted standard of fairness within the industry. Coordinating conflicting programs requires a careful balance between equity and efficiency. In our work, we first develop a fairness metric to measure deviation from first-scheduled, first-served in the presence of program conflicts. Next, we develop an IP formulation that minimizes a convex approximation of this metric. We further develop an exponential penalty approach and show that its computational performance is far superior and its trade-off between delay and fairness compares favorably. In our results, we demonstrate the effectiveness of these models using historical and hypothetical scenarios. Additionally, we demonstrate that the exponential penalty approach exhibits exceptional computational performance, implying practical viability. Our results suggest that this approach could lead to system-wide savings on the order of $25 million to $50 million per year.

  Keywords: traffic flow management; ground holding programs; equitable flight delay; Equity; Saving; Management; Management Practices and Processes; Demand and Consumers; Performance Capacity; Performance Efficiency; Conflict and Resolution; System; Aerospace Industry;

  Citation:

  Barnhart, Cynthia, Dimitris Bertsimas, Constantine Caramanis, and Douglas S. Fearing. "Equitable and Efficient Coordination in Traffic Flow Management." Transportation Science (forthcoming).

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