Working Paper | HBS Working Paper Series | 2013
by Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
This paper decomposes excess return predictability in U.S. and U.K. inflation-indexed and nominal government bonds. We find that nominal bonds reflect time-varying inflation and real rate risk premia, while inflation-indexed bonds reflect time-varying real rate and liquidity risk premia. These three risk premia exhibit quantitatively similar degrees of time variation. We estimate a systematic liquidity premium in U.S. inflation-indexed yields over nominal yields, which declined from 100 bps in 1999 to 30 bps in 2005 and spiked to over 150 bps during the crisis 2008–2009. We find no evidence that shocks to relative inflation-indexed bond issuance generate return predictability.
Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; term structure; Real interest rate risk; Inflation risk; Inflation-Indexed Bonds; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States;
Citation:
Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11–094, March 2011. (Revised April 2013.)
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Case | HBS Case Collection | 2013 (Revised from original 2012 version)
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