Supplement | HBS Case Collection | 2010 (Revised from original 2010 version)

Chile's Copper Surplus: The Road Not Taken (B)

by Laura Alfaro, Dante Roscini and Renee Kim

Abstract

In 2009, Chile's Finance Minister Andres Velasco's fortunes had been reversed. His fiscal policy that had come under attack just a year ago had been used to finance a $4 billion fiscal stimulus package amid the global economic downturn. Velasco was now Chile's most popular minister. However, the future of Chile's fiscal policy was questionable with the election of a new president, Sebastian Pinera, the first conservative leader to lead Chile in two decades.

Keywords: Developing Countries and Economies; Financial Crisis; Financial Strategy; Financing and Loans; Policy; Government and Politics; Chile;

Format: Print

7 pages

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Citation:

Alfaro, Laura, Dante Roscini, and Renee Kim. "Chile's Copper Surplus: The Road Not Taken (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 710-020, November 2010. (Revised from original March 2010 version.)

In 2006 the French bank Crédit Agricole bought the Greek Emporiki bank, for €2.8 billion, at the peak of a bull market for bank takeovers. Six years, a major financial crisis, and €5.2 billion of losses later, in a context of great uncertainty in the European banking sector, what decision should Crédit Agricole take regarding Emporiki? Through the example of this European cross-border acquisition the case looks at the Greek banking system before and during the unprecedented Greek sovereign debt crisis; the efforts of Greece and the main actors of the European financial system to prevent the embattled country from having to exit the Euro zone; and the potential scenarios for Greek banks in mid-2012.

Assuming office in December 2012, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was determined to revive Japan's stagnating economy through an ambitious plan known as 'Abenomics.' Under the guidance of the newly appointed governor of the central bank, Haruhiko Kuroda, the Bank of Japan adopted quantitative easing as its new monetary policy, pledging to double the nation's monetary base in two years through the purchase of long-term government bonds. While Kuroda insisted that Japan needed to "use every means available" to combat deflation, critics wondered whether inflation would increase the nation's public-sector debt to unsustainable levels or outpace growth in wages. Furthermore, skeptics debated whether Prime Minister Abe was wise to make the Bank of Japan the key player in moving the nation toward economic growth. Others questioned whether, unlike in the past, the Bank of Japan would take the necessary steps to carry through with the policy.

The sovereign debt crisis that took Greece by storm in 2010 began to spread to other European markets. Within a few months Ireland and Portugal had also lost access to the sovereign debt markets and had to rely on supranational loans for their financing. The risk of further contagion was clear and present. Political leaders continued to seek measures to stem the crisis and to avoid the larger economies of Spain and Italy becoming involved. The European financial system became strained. Banks were found to be undercapitalized and began to ration credit to the economy. The European Central Bank intervened to provide liquidity to the system in order to avoid a credit crunch. Could the eurozone survive the storm?

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