Working Paper | HBS Working Paper Series | 2010

Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries

by Diego A. Comin, Norman Loayza, Farooq Pasha and Luis Serven

Abstract

We build a two-country asymmetric DSGE model with two features: (i) endogenous and slow diffusion of technologies from the developed to the developing country, and (ii) adjustment costs to investment flows. We calibrate the model to match the Mexico-U.S. trade and FDI flows. The model is able to explain the following stylized facts: (i) U.S. and Mexican output co-move more than consumption; (ii) U.S. shocks have a larger effect on Mexico than in the U.S.; (iii) U.S. business cycles lead over medium term fluctuations in Mexico; (iv) Mexican consumption is more volatile than output.

Keywords: Business Cycles; Developing Countries and Economies; Trade; International Finance; Foreign Direct Investment; Mathematical Methods; Mexico; United States;

Citation:

Comin, Diego A., Norman Loayza, Farooq Pasha, and Luis Serven. "Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-029, October 2009. (Revise and resubmit at the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.)