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Background Note
| HBS Case Collection
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2011
(Revised from original 2009 version)
The Great Moderation, Dead or Alive?
by
Diego A. Comin
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Abstract
The Great Moderation is a significant decline in the volatility of fluctuations in most macroeconomic variables that the United States and other developed and developing economies have experienced at least since the mid-1980s. This case describes the basic facts, presents contending explanations, and explores the consequences of the Great Moderation for the likely amplitude of future business cycles.
Keywords: Volatility;
Business Cycles;
Macroeconomics;
United States;