Book | 2008

Predictable Surprises

by Max Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins


Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss (or ignore) the warning signs. This book shows why such "predictable surprises" put us all at risk, and shows how we can understand, anticipate, and prevent them before disaster strikes. There is a universal fear factor surrounding this subject: that society and the workplace are filled with disasters in the making that we could prevent if we only knew what to look for. This book plays on that fear and offers a positive, proactive resolution to it. Two leading experts in managerial decision making show that many disasters in business are preceded by clear warning signals that leaders either miss or purposely ignore. Here they outline the six danger signals that suggest a predictable surprise may be imminent.

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Leadership; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior;


Bazerman, Max, and Michael D. Watkins. Predictable Surprises. Paperback ed. Harvard Business School Press, 2008.