Drazen Prelec, Professor of Management Science and Economics at MIT Sloan School of Management
Drazen Prelec, Professor of Management Science and Economics at MIT Sloan School of Management
"Finding truth when most people are wrong."(joint with Sebastian Seung, MIT)
"Finding truth when most people are wrong."(joint with Sebastian Seung, MIT)
The Science-Based Business Initiative sponsors a lunch time seminar on Fridays that brings academic and industry scientists to campus to describe some of the breakthrough ideas that impact current and future businesses. The 2008-2009 seminars are joint with Economics 2888hf: Economics of Science and Engineering Workshop, Harvard University. The seminars provide an intimate group of faculty and doctoral students to gather in a seminar environment, Baker Library 102, from Noon to 1:30 PM for a presentation and Q/A session.
Please RSVP no later than 72 hours prior to the seminar as lunch will be provided for guests who RSVP. To RSVP or for questions on a seminar or to join a mailing list, please contact sbbi@hbs.edu.
Abstract: Effective use of subjective judgment is essential in all fields of knowledge. We present a method for finding truth when the subjective judgments of multiple respondents are the only evidence available, and majority opinion may be wrong. Respondents are scored for their own judgments and for their metaknowledge of others' judgments. In a probabilistic model of belief formation, their scores converge to the subjective probabilities they implicitly assign to the truth. Hence, the judgment of the highest scoring respondent reveals truth, irrespective of majority opinion. An experiment demonstrates that the method outperforms majority rule in selecting truth, and in identifying experts.
Bio: Drazen Prelec has been a member of the MIT faculty since 1991, and presently holds appointments in the Sloan School, the Economics Department, and the Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences. He received his Ph.D. in experimental psychology and AB in applied mathematics from Harvard University. His research interests include decision theory, consumer behavior, marketing research, collective prediction mechanisms, behavioral economics and neuroeconomics. He was a Junior Fellow in the Harvard Society of Fellows, and has received a number of research awards, including the John Simon Guggenheim Fellowship.