Luis M Viceira, John Y Campbell, Adi Sunderam
The historically low yields on Treasury bonds are the hallmark of a bubble, according to some commentators. This column analyses the relationship between bond yields, the stock market, and inflation over the past 50 years. It finds that the riskiness of nominal bonds changes over time and that investors and policymakers can use the changing stock-bond correlation as a real-time measure of inflation expectations.
By Jason Zweig
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Luis M. Viceira
Division of Faculty & Research
Harvard Business SchoolSoldiers Field
Boston, MA 02163